Saturday, December 17, 2011

The Durban Climate Conference was a Monumental Success

COP17, held in Durban, South African from  November 28th to December 9th was a unparalleled success, as this official statement from the UN declares. There was no expectation that any kind of a deal would get done, and the consensus was that negotiators would leave the conference in shame, unable to work through a deadlock. In this context, the deal to start negotiating a new deal in 2015 was an unprecedented success … if you look at it from the point of view of the politicians who had tasked their negotiators to come up with some sort of an agreement that made it look like they were doing something, while actually just putting off any real decision to someone else, some other time.  If you look at it from the point of view of the rest of us? Oh yeah, we got sold out.

We were sold out by politicians who are more concerned with their image than their actions. Politicians more concerned with getting re-elected than building a better world for us all to live in. Politicians who tasked their negotiators with getting some kind of a deal done, so they could claim to be doing something and thus look good to the progressives among their electorate, while actually ensuring the status quo until well after their own elected terms end. So, they try to look good to us, while actually doing everything that the corporations that fund them want. Everyone wins, right? We get some vague promise to do something (maybe) sometime in the future, and the corporations get solid promises of doing nothing for the foreseeable future. Oh yeah, everyone gets exactly what they want.

The Durban climate change talks were doomed to fail. The negotiators appointed were not at all concerned with the science of climate change, or with the consequences of climate change, as stated by the chair of the IPCC, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri in this interview. They were there to represent the selfish national interests of the most polluting nations on earth. They were there to make sure that we stayed the wealthiest countries and that nobody would have much of a chance to catch up – at whatever the cost, even certain climatic disaster.

Make no mistake about the deal that was done – it is absolutely meaningless. Worse than meaningless, because it will be used as an excuse that we can carry on as we have been, for at least the next eight years. The deal says that countries will begin – yes, just begin – negotiating a treaty for binding cuts to emission in 2015 (what have the last 17 COP meetings been about again?), to take effect in 2020. Forget for a minute that scientists say emissions must peak by 2015 to have a reasonable chance of avoiding cataclysmic climate change – after all, we already established the negotiators weren’t at Durban because they were interested in the science of climate change. Think about this: the conference ran 35 hours overschedule to work out the specific wording of the ‘binding cuts’ portion of the agreement – with India refusing the phrase “legal agreement”, because they  thought that this wording was to strong legally. They ended up settling on “an agreed outcome with legal force.” But let me ask you this: do you really think India agreed to “an agreed outcome with legal force” understanding that it would be legally binding, if they refused other wording for that same reason? And when they claim that they can’t be legally bound because of the wording, do you think China or the US will agree to binding limits? Not a chance.

Furthermore, what is to stop countries from doing what Canada just did on the Kyoto Accord and walk out on it the year before the targets are supposed to be met? What will the reaction be if the US or China simply says they will not make their targets, and they are withdrawing? Same thing that is happening to Canada for its refusal to meet its international obligations: nothing at all. Besides, even if there is good faith to start negotiating a true deal in 2015 (and you can be sure that there isn’t) what happens if one of the major players changes its mind? What happens if a climate change denier wins the US Presidential election between now and then (or even at any point after that) and refuses binding emissions cuts? The entire deal falls apart.

COP17 in Durban was an absolute farce. It was a show trial for the climate. Everyone knew that no deal would actually get done, but to save face negotiators made some sort of obscure promise to start negotiating at a future date. Negotiators paid more attention to wording like an “agreed outcome with legal force” than they did to the science of climate change. But it doesn’t really matter. Because finding a deal that would reduce carbon emissions isn’t what negotiators were in Durban for. They saved face and did what they were there to do: they managed to propagate the illusion that our political leaders truly want to act, that something is being done on climate change, while actually maintaining the status quo for another few years. Let’s see if the negotiators in 2015 can repeat the great success of 2011, and put off real action for another decade or so.

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